CARRYING CAPACITY OF SATTLEMENT BASED ON DISASTER PRONE AREAS

The research aims to assess potential locations that can be developed as settlement areas by observing the area's topographical factors as well as the potential for disaster-affected areas. This research used a quantitative qualitative descriptive method with overlay method between existing land use map, topography map with location map affected by flood disaster, volcano eruption, forest fire, avalanche and tsunami. The results of this study was 20,112 ha (24.93%) is a potential area of settlements. Carrying capacity value for the settlements for all districts is above 1 (one) so that all districts have a possibility to develop settlement areas. The development of the settlement area is preferred in the Gangga because the value of the carrying capacity reaches 71.63, while the development of settlements is limited in Bayan and Kayangan. For settlements that have been developed in hazardous areas, the handling is a restriction and prohibition for new developments in disaster-prone areas and relocation in settlement areas in areas with insecurity levels high.


INTRODUCTION
The population of North Lombok Regency has increased from 200,730 (2010) to 220,412 people (2019) with an average growth rate of 1.4% per year. The increase in population growth directly impacts the increasing needs of settlements areas for the community. The area of the settlement reached 2,214 ha (2.74%) from the total area of North Lombok Regency.
Topographically, North Lombok Regency is dominated by areas with slopes above 40% covering an area of 48,406 ha (60% of the total area), while the area that has a slope of 0-15% only reaches 12,102 ha (15% of the total area). This condition is one of the causes of the settlements developments in the highlands (Widayanti, Yuniarman, & Susanti, 2018). The land used in the highlands is usually from the forest. The most common locations that target for development sites are the forest land and shrubs (Delita & Sitompul, 2016). The forest area is not only used as a settlements area, but also used as land for farming.
The target location for the settlements development areas in North Lombok Regency is low-lying areas. In the lowlands, the location is settled not only in the area that has been designated as a settlement area, but also in coastal areas. The choice of a settlement's location depends on the financial ability of the community. Because of the high land price in urban areas, people prefer to live in a suburb where the price is more affordable. One of the suburbs is coastal areas (Damayanti, Hardiana, & Rahayu, 2019) The development of settlements areas in coastal, topography above 40% that occurred today in North Lombok Regency in inappropriate with the direction of Local Regulation No. 9/2011 obout the Regional Spatial Plan (RTRW) North Lombok Regency where the settlement area is directed at areas with slope 0%-25%, outside wetlands and conservation land. Areas with topography above 40% and coastal areas have the potential as disaster-prone areas so that development in the area should be avoided as the location of settlements areas.
Development of settlements areas in addition to paying attention to the security location of disasters must also pay attention to the carrying capacity and capacity of the area. Optimal development in an area, must pay attention to the capacity and carrying capacity of the environment (Kuswara, 2013). This condition is caused because all activities carried out by humans will directly affect land use in an area. So if the construction of settlements is carried out continuously without regard to carrying capacity and capacity, it will affect the balance of the region (Sadali, 2018).
The carrying capacity is the ability of land in supporting every human activity that is inside to meet the needs of a decent standard of living, while the capacity of the land to accept people living on it (Maria, Sangkertadi, & Supardjo, 2018).
The increasing growth of settlements accompanied by current conditions, there are many settlement areas in disaster-prone areas, so, it is necessary to review the carrying capacity of the land. So the purpose of this research is to review the settlement carrying capacity based on disaster-prone areas in North Lombok Regency.
This research is important to be a direction both for the local government and for developers in ensuring location of settlements development to hold local community settlement area, where the backlog of houses reached 27,161 units in 2019 (BLHKLU, 2019).

RESEARCH METHODS Research Approach
The research approach used descriptive quantitative research, in which secondary data is obtained from institutions and literature. Data to be analyzed include: spatial data of space, especially data on the e-ISSN: 2549-7057 | p-ISSN: 2085-8167 Jurnal Geografi Vol 13 No. 1 -2021 C a r r y i n g C a p a c i t y o f. . . . . | 14 area of settlements, rice fields, population data, and data on disaster-affected areas (Pridasari & Muta'ali, 2018) (Putri, Sutomo, & Shalihati, 2019). The data needed in this research can be seen in the following

Stage of Research
The stages of this research can be seen in the following diagram:

RESULTS DAN DISCUSSION Conditions of Disaster-Prone Settlements Area
The development of settlements in North Regency based on the survey results can be grouped into 3 (three) typologies of settlement areas, namely: new settlements, fishing settlements and highland settlements and traditional settlements. Based on the typology, all settlements areas have the potential for disasters.
a. New Settlement The settlement development due to the narrow urban land, so that people are finding alternatives to support the development of settlements. These settlements are usually planned by the government or developers of settlements.
The new settlement development area in North Lombok Regency is located in Sokong Village, and Sigar Penjalin Village and part of Tanjung city. New settlements construction by developer include BTN Sigar Penjalin Residence, Tanjung Regency Residence, Tanjung Green Land Residence, BTN Jambianom Harmoni, Tanjung Asri Residence located in Tanjung District, and Gangga Asri Residence in Gangga District. The potential for disaster in this settlements area is due to the passing of a large river. There are 28 rivers in North Lombok Regency, the distribution in the following table.

a. Flash Flood
Flash Floods has a high potential in North Lombok Regency. The cause is the discharge of large rivers when there is rain, while the width of the river ranges from 2-15 meters. Distribution of settlements areas that have the potential to be affected by flash floods in the following table. Other districts with the threat of high landslides have the potential to occur along large river flows in the form of landslide debris because the river has a large slope of river cliffs. The risk of landslide impacts is high in Pemenang district. In addition, the risk of landslide disasters is high in community settlement areas with high slope. Higher risk areas (risk index: medium -high) are also present in large river flow that is occupied by community for housing.

f. Tsunami
Areas with a high tsunami threat are located along the coast of North Lombok Regency, (Klui, Pemenang District -Lokoq Puteq, Bayan District). The lower and closer a place from the coastline, the higher the threat of the area. The area with the highest threat is the Tiga Gili Islands, where the tsunami occurred with a height of 12 meters. The safe location of the tsunami in The Tiga Gili Islands is Gili Trawangan Hill. Other islands in the archipelago will sink because the height of the island is not more than 10 meters above sea level. The highest risk of tsunami disaster is Tanjung District (especially Tanjung Village) and Pemenang District (the capital area of the sub-district) because the area has a flat topography. The average risk index in Tanjung District is medium -high. Areas with high risk occur in Gili Indah Village, Pemenang District. Based on the data and the results of the analysis using geometric projection formula, the results of the development of the population for the next 20 years until 2038, can be seen in the following table.

Demographic Carrying Capacity Analysis
The value of demographic carrying capacity in North Lombok Regency is calculated by the data of population and area. The population of North Lombok Regency for the next 20 years is projected to reach 288,587 people. The total area of North Lombok Regency is 806.76 km2 with Bayan District having the largest area compared to other districts of 291.33 km2.
The location of settlements in North Lombok Regency is dominant in the highlands because the topography of the dominant area is above 40%. Based on data from the Central Statistics Agency of North Lombok Regency, 2% of areas in North Lombok Regency have topography of 0-2%, 13% of regions have topography of 2-15%, 15% of regions have topography of 15-40% and the remaining 60% of regions have topography above 40%.
For analysis of demographic carrying capacity in each district using the formulations described in the methodology chapter can be seen in the following table. Based on carrying capacity of demographic standards, districts that have low capacity values are Tanjung and Kayangan districts because they have limits values below the average limits of North Lombok Regency, so the growth of settlement areas in those districts must be restricted.

Settlement Carrying Capacity Analysis
In analyzing the carrying capacity of settlements areas in North Lombok Regency, it must be analyzed areas that are prohibited to be built, areas that can be developed as limited settlements areas and areas that are not allowed for settlements areas. The criteria considered in determining areas that should not be built include: disaster prone areas, high topography of areas, high rainfall, types of land containing sand and the land use as conservation areas. By considering the typology of settlements areas, the carrying capacity of land to be developed as a settlement area and disaster-prone maps, the results of the analysis obtained a map of potential and non-potential land (disaster prone) to be developed as a settlements area in North Lombok Regency in the following figure.  Based on the results of the carrying capacity analysis, the potential land carrying capacity as a settlement area in North Lombok Regency is 20,112 ha, and nonpotential areas as a settlement area of 60,563 ha. The area of settlements located in the area is not potential of 372.76 ha and the settlement area on a potential land area of 1,841.24 ha. The area of land that can be developed into resettlement land, facilities and utilities in North Lombok Regency. Based on the results of the analysis, the area of land that can be developed for settlements areas is 14,079 ha and the land area for facilities and utilities is 6,034 ha. While the carrying capacity of settlements with the results of analysis of potential areas that can be developed into settlement areas by using a formula on the methodology of the results as follows.

The Direction of New Settlements Developments
The direction of new settlements are allocated for self-help housing developments built by the community as well as by developers. The directives in the development of new settlements, are: 1. Housing development and new settlements areas are directed to areas that have good environmental carrying capacity and are not disaster-prone areas or protected areas 2. The proportion used is 1 : 3 : 6 with a plot area of 600 m2, 400 m2 and 200 m2 -Proportion of 1 luxury home directed at hinterland/suburban urban areas -The proportion of 3 medium-sized houses is directed at urban support areas -Proportion of 6 simple houses directed to urban central areas 3. Provision of public facilities and infrastructure system independently or provided by the government that is individual or communal

The Direction of Fishing Settlements Developments
Fishing settlements in North Lombok Regency are located along the coast of North Lombok. The condition of the fishing settlements is located on the border of the beach with slums condition. For the development of the arrangement of fishing settlement areas need to be done in the future.
Handling slums of fishermen can be done with several models, are: (determination of territory), ownership (ownership).

CONCLUSION
The conclusions of this research are: 1. The carrying capacity of demographics that have a value below the limit value is Tanjung and Bayan District each has a value of 0.057 and 0.07 so there needs to be restrictions on the development of settlements areas in both districts 2. The carrying capacity of settlements areas by analyzing disaster-prone areas, high topography of areas, high rainfall, types of land that protect sand and land use as conservation land is obtained as a potential area of 20,112 ha. 3. The carrying capacity of settlements areas has a value above 1 so that all districts have the possibility to develop settlemetns areas. However, there needs to be restrictions on settlements, especially in Bayan, Kayangan and Tanjung districts. As for the direction of settlement development is more directed to the District Ganges.