PENERAPAN METODE DOUBLE MOVING AVERAGE DAN DOUBLE EKSPONENTIAL SMOOTHING DALAM MERAMALKAN JUMLAH PRODUKSI CRUDE PALM OIL (CPO) PADA PT. PERKEBUNAN NUSANTARA IV UNIT DOLOK SINUMBAH
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24114/jmk.v6i1.19309Abstract
ABSTRAKMetode peramalan Double Moving Average dan Double Eksponential Smoothing merupakan model ramalan data berkala (Time Series) yang dalam penelitian ini digunakan sebagai metode dalam peramalan. Permasalahan yang akan dibahas adalah bagaimana meramalkan hasil produksi CPO pada PTPN IV unit Dolok Sinumbah menggunaan metode Double Moving Average dan Double Eksponential Smoothing serta membandingkan metode peramalan yang paling tepat diantara metode Double Moving Average dan Double Eksponential Smoothing. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk meramalkan hasil produksi CPO PTPN IV unit Dolok Sinumbah di tahun 2017 pada tiap bulannya.Metode pengumpulan data yang digunakan adalah data sekunder. Data yang diambil adalah jumlah hasil produksi CPO pada PTPN IV unit Dolok Sinumbah tahun 2012-2016. Hasil analisis data dengan menggunakan metode Double Ekspo- nential Smoothing dengan α : 0,52 diperoleh nilai MSE dan MAPE terkecil yaitu sebesar 18920.9 dan 0,091. Kata kunci: Peramalan, Double Moving Average, Double Eksponential Smoothing, MSE, MAPE.ABSTRACTDouble Moving Average and Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method is a periodic data forecast model (Time Series) which in this research is used as a method in forecasting. The problem that will be discussed is how to predict the production of CPO in PTPN IV Dolok Sinumbah unit use Double Moving Average and Double Exponential Smoothing method and compare the most precise forecasting method between Double Moving Average and Double Exponential Smoothing method. The purpose of this study is to predict the production of CPO PTPN IV Dolok Sinumbah units in 2017 in each month. Data collection method used is secondary data. The data taken is the amount of CPO production in PTPN IV unit Dolok Sinumbah year 2012-2016. The result of data analysis using Double Exponential Smoothing method with α: 0,52 obtained the smallest MSE and MAPE value that is equal to 18920.9 and 0,091. Keywords: Forecasting, Double Moving Average, Double Exponential Smoothing, MSE, MAPEDownloads
Issue
Section
Articles
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:
- Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.Penulis.
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (Refer to The Effect of Open Access).