Mapping of Crime-Prone Areas Using Geographic Information Systems in Pematang Siantar City in 2025

Abstract

Crime is a social problem that continues to increase along with population growth and the complexity of urban activities. Pematang Siantar, the second most densely populated city in North Sumatra, faces various social challenges that contribute to a high crime rate. This study aims to map crime-prone areas and analyze the effect of population density on crime rates in 2025. The research employed a quantitative descriptive method with a Geographic Information System (GIS) approach. Primary data consisted of 302 crime cases in 2024 from the Pematang Siantar Police Department, demographic data from the Central Bureau of Statistics, and field observations of crime scene coordinates. Analysis techniques included buffer, kernel density, overlay, and simple linear regression. The results show that crime cases consisted of 191 cases of aggravated theft (63.25%), 103 cases of motor vehicle theft (34.11%), and 8 cases of robbery (2.64%). The highest distribution occurred in West Siantar (77 cases/25.50%), North Siantar (73 cases/24.17%), and Sitalasari (62 cases/20.53%), while the lowest was in Marihat (7 cases/2.32%). Regression analysis indicated that population density (R² = 0.185; sig. 0.174) did not significantly influence crime rates. This research contributes to the development of crime geography and provides a scientific basis for local government and law enforcement in designing spatial-based crime prevention strategies.